The official forecast came out September 2, and it moves Kyoto almost two weeks past where most itineraries put it.
Every autumn the Japan Meteorological Corporation publishes a koyo forecast covering around 700 viewing spots and 3,000 mountains, adjusted for altitude. It’s the same apparatus behind the spring cherry blossom forecasts, and it’s taken just as seriously. The 2026 edition landed on September 2.
The numbers don’t match the standard advice, including our own seasonal guide to Japan, which says Tokyo and Kyoto peak in November. Tokyo still does. Kyoto doesn’t.
The dates
Forecast peak for red maple, the momiji most people picture when they picture Japanese autumn.
| City | Peak red maple | Versus average |
|---|---|---|
| Sapporo | November 7 | About 11 days later |
| Aomori | November 13 | Typical |
| Nagano | November 21 | Typical |
| Tokyo | November 29 | On schedule |
| Osaka | December 4 | Later |
| Fukuoka | December 7 | Later |
| Kagoshima | December 10 | Later |
| Kyoto | December 11 | Later |
Kyoto, the most photographed autumn destination in the country, is forecast to peak on December 11. A normal year puts its full color between November 15 and December 5.
Kyoto is the outlier
Kyoto is where this costs people something. Most itineraries, tour packages and guides still say arrive the third or fourth week of November. Land on the 22nd this year and you’re roughly two and a half weeks early on the maples.
Push it into the first half of December instead. You get the color, and you get it after the tour groups have cycled through on the old calendar. Warmer than average temperatures across southern Japan are why the dates slid, which also means early December in Kansai isn’t the cold proposition it sounds like.
The ginkgo gap
The forecast tracks two trees, and this year they’ve come apart.
| City | Yellow ginkgo | Red maple | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto | November 27 | December 11 | 14 days |
| Osaka | November 24 | December 4 | 10 days |
| Fukuoka | November 27 | December 7 | 10 days |
| Tokyo | November 26 | November 29 | 3 days |
| Sapporo | November 6 | November 7 | 1 day |
Ginkgo is more temperature sensitive and usually turns first. In Tokyo and Sapporo that gap is a rounding error. In Kyoto it’s two weeks, which gives the city two separate autumns this year.
Late November is the ginkgo trip: yellow avenues, leaves drifted up against temple walls. Early December is the maple trip: deep red, the valley gardens, the picture everyone already has in their head. Book one of them on purpose.
Tokyo gets both at once in the last days of November. The ginkgo avenue at Meiji Jingu Gaien is the obvious stop, and what a single ancient ginkgo does to the ground beneath it explains why a whole boulevard of them draws the crowds it does.
Elevation beats latitude
Color descends mountains as reliably as it moves down the archipelago, and high ground runs one to two weeks ahead of the city below it. Kyoto’s surrounding hills turn before its temple gardens do. Nikko and Lake Chuzenji, above Tokyo, are an October trip rather than a November one. Daisetsuzan in Hokkaido starts in September.
So if your dates are locked and the forecast has moved away from you, change your altitude rather than your destination. An hour uphill buys back two weeks.
It also opens up ground most autumn itineraries skip. The Japanese Alps around Nagano, the valleys in our piece on Japan’s most beautiful mountain landscapes, peak in the second and third weeks of November and stay comparatively empty.
Going in October
If your trip falls in October, skip Kansai and head north. Hokkaido’s high country starts turning in late September, and Sounkyo Gorge and the Daisetsuzan slopes are the first real color in the country each year.
Tohoku follows through October. The Oirase Stream and Lake Towada in Aomori are the most underrated autumn landscape in the country: a shallow river running through moss and maple for miles, walkable end to end, without the foot traffic of a Kyoto temple.
Sapporo’s own trees are the exception this year at about eleven days behind schedule, so the city holds its color into November later than usual.
A route that works this year
Run it backwards from Kyoto. Tokyo in the last week of November for ginkgo and maple together. Nagano or Hakone in the first days of December, high enough that the color has settled in. Kyoto around December 8 to 12 for the maples, after the peak-season crowds have thinned. Three autumns instead of one, and it inverts the usual crowd curve.
Our two week Japan guide covers the routing, and our roundup of Japan’s most distinctive hotels covers where to sleep. Book early either way. The shifted dates compress demand into a narrower window than the industry’s standing assumptions account for.
Before you book
The forecast will move. The JMC issues a refined version in early October and updates it as the season approaches. Treat September as a strong signal rather than a fixed date, and keep accommodation flexible where you can.
Crowds are the real constraint. Autumn now rivals cherry blossom season at the famous sites, and Kyoto doesn’t absorb it gracefully. The shifted calendar helps if you use it, and our notes on avoiding crowds at popular destinations apply with some force in a Kyoto December.
The departure tax went up. Japan’s international tourist tax rose to 3,000 yen per person for departures from July 1, 2026, up from 1,000. It’s collected inside your airfare rather than at the airport, so it’s easy to miss.
Flights still price on the old calendar. Airlines set autumn fares against historical demand, so late November stays expensive even though the color has moved. Early December into Kansai should be both quieter and cheaper. Our guide to when to book and when to avoid booking covers the mechanics.
One week further and it’s winter
A December trip to Kyoto puts you within reach of the season that follows. Snow arrives in the mountains while Kansai is still red, which makes for a neat two part trip. Shirakawa-go under snow is a couple of hours from Kanazawa, and the ski regions open through December.
Autumn in Japan runs about ten weeks, down a country spanning twenty two degrees of latitude and a lot of vertical relief. This year the wave simply sits later than usual. Plan against the real dates and you get the better version of the trip.
More from us on the region in Asia, on landscapes worth the flight in Natural Wonders, and on planning in Itineraries & Know-How.
Forecast data: Japan Meteorological Corporation koyo forecast, released September 2, 2026. Departure tax: Japan Tourism Agency.
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